Population almost a billion and a half, and counting

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I just figured out today, that India may have surpassed population of China. By most recent estimates, India is now the most populous country in the world. Twitter is ablaze with this news. Pundits are livid. This change, if indeed true has come four years early. Some find this news encouraging, as more demographics could mean more economic growth. What !!! Is it not just opposite of what we believed all along !!

In 1798, Thomas Robert Malthus proposed a theory, or a malthusian trap. Population growth is geometric, but food-grain production is arithmetic, he said. If we grow unchecked, we will outstrip our food supply. Nature and humans balance this growth through disease, hunger, wars, abortion, birth control, postponement of marriage and even celibacy. Till 1950s, attempts at birth control were more of an individual effort. Societies and clergy advocated self restraint, and cervical cap was only available tool. Birth control pills came in 1950s, and intra-uterine devices in 1970s. At a policy level, India was first to initiate a National Family Planning program in 1952.

Birth of the inverted Red-triangle

Born in 1970s, I grew up seeing red-traingle all around me. This was “the” family planning symbol. Do we know, that till 1966, we did not have any inverted red-triangle. A special postal cover from 1963, and a first day cover from 1966 bear a testimony to this fact. We however had two happy parents, and two happy children as a “desirable model family”.

In 1966, an Indian official named Dr Dharmendra Kumar Tyagi was heading National Family Planning Program. We required a simple, non-verbal symbol to identify any location where family planning services were available. He created a red-triangle and used it over all family-planning communication materials. Red signifies health delivery. Triangle was easy symbol to draw. In coming years, this symbol became global.

Dharmendra Tyagi had a short life. He died aged 41 in 1969. Two decades later, when Phil Harvey (an American philanthropist) funded a new contraception-based organization, he named it after Mr Tyagi as DKT international.

Setback and Success

India was one of the few countries in the world, that launched a vigorous family planning program. From 1975 to 1977 we had “emergency years” in India. During these times, aggressive family planning measures, and reported forced vasectomies earned disrepute for the program. China followed India in 1979 to launch even more brutal one-child-policy. Today, one-child policy is counted as more of a folly.

In subsequent years, family-planning was rechristened as family-welfare. State sponsored contraception services remained a mainstay of these population control efforts. Despite disrepute, six decades of National Family Planning program has its successes. A woman in her life time had on an average six children in 1952. This number dropped to 2.4 in 2011. It became 2.0 in 2020. As soon as this number drops below 2, population begins to decline. We feel this change all around us. Many of our parents were about five or more siblings. Our children are mostly two.

Red triangle fades, and resurfaces

Postage material also documents political symbolism. A recent philately review of population control efforts identified many such symbols. After 1990s, we have started depicting one, rather than two children. Aggressively marketed red-triangle faded away from post-1991 philately. It became much small in Family Planning Association of India first day cover in 1999.

In 2018, we had a new family planning logo. This time two parents and a child are inside this triangle. It is also interesting, that almost all postal material has a focus on children, while program has a focus on contraceptive choices.

Unlike 1970s, today we are not shy about our rising numbers. Rise in food-grain production has proved malthusian hypothesis wrong. More numbers mean a larger market, and a more robust economy. Tables seem to have turned. Productive workforce in China is reported to be in decline. For us, it is likely to grow more. Lets live the moment !!!